Drobyazko S. Modeling expenditure to provide economic security of insurance companies // International scientific journal "Internauka". Series: "Economic Sciences". — 2018. — №3. https://doi.org/10.25313/2520-2294-2018-3-4785
Economics and Enterprise Management
UDC 368.212:629.33
Drobyazko Svetlana
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor,
Professor of the Department of Accounting and General Economic Disciplines
Open University of Human Development "Ukraine"
MODELING EXPENDITURE TO PROVIDE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF INSURANCE COMPANIES
Summary. Existing functional approach to control is not able to provide the required level of quality of insurance services of the enterprise. The need to rebuild an outdated functional approach is conditioned not only by its principal disadvantages, but by objective conditions when there are new opportunities for mastering segments of the market of resources, capital, sales of insurance services through the improvement of the quality of service provision. Also, to the objective conditions and opportunities should be as follows: required restructuring of the type of management existing in the company, taking into account the interests of shareholders; the need for sufficient liberalization of integration processes, the degree of freedom in the implementation of integration processes that are related to the economic interests and ownership of business chains, when the functions of regulating their joint activities are reliant on the parent company; acquired further development of the foreign economic activity, when the processes cover together several spheres of the enterprise or the activities of several enterprises that make up the corporation.
Key words: quality of services, costs, economic security, insurance sector.
Statement of the problem. The quality of services is a priority area for improvement for insurance companies. The achievement of the required level of service quality is possible only with the stable functioning of the enterprise, with the help of a management system, taking into account both a functional and a process approach, which will allow to assess the quality at each stage of the provision of services. The main ways of coordinating the functioning of the management system, the quality management system, and the corresponding business process control contours are [1-4]: "forecasting of interactions" - a quality management system is a connecting link (in choosing the optimal managerial decisions, the necessary parameters of quality serve as the criterion); "interactions assessment" - the quality management system sets the range of signal changes for the parameters of the business processes, quality parameters act as limiting conditions in the development and implementation of appropriate management actions; "Interconnection solution" - the quality management system acts autonomously, independently choosing connecting signals (in case of necessity, maintaining the quality level of various processes, works, products at a certain level); "providing responsibility", which involves the relationship between the actions of the quality management system and the actions (outcomes) of the contours of management of business processes.
Analysis of recent researches and publications. The problem of providing the economic security of the insurance company is still the subject of sharp scientific discussions, which indicates the complexity of this concept and the ambiguity of interpretation. The work of well-known foreign experts is devoted to providing the economic security of the insurance company in the sphere of the insurance industry: Rejda, G. E., Ocampo, J. A., Pearson, R., & Elson, D., Flannery, M. J., Wan, M.
Formulation purposes of article (problem). The purpose of the article is to improve the methodology of cost modeling to ensure economic security measures.
The main material. We construct a multi-factor model for forecasting the sale of insurance services and calculating costs for ensuring economic security on the basis of correlation-regression analysis.
The calculations and the obtained results allow us to construct a model for forecasting the sale of insurance services and calculating the costs of providing economic security on the basis of correlation-regression analysis for IC"Knyazha" in Tables 1-4.
Table 1
Output data for constructing a model for predicting sales of insurance and calculating costs for ensuring economic security
№ |
Period |
Sales volume of services, UAH |
Costs of providing economic security, UAH |
||||||||
Current month |
1 month after |
2 month after |
3 month after |
4 month after |
Current month |
1 month after |
2 month after |
3 month after |
4 month after |
||
1 |
06/2016 |
383238 |
250873 |
280559 |
377721 |
315232 |
6431 |
2627 |
5581 |
4495 |
4896 |
2 |
07/2016 |
478453 |
383238 |
250873 |
280559 |
377721 |
3658 |
6431 |
2627 |
5581 |
4495 |
3 |
08/2016 |
571128 |
478453 |
383238 |
250873 |
280559 |
7572 |
3658 |
6431 |
2627 |
5581 |
4 |
09/2016 |
623823 |
571128 |
478453 |
383238 |
250873 |
5974 |
7572 |
3658 |
6431 |
2627 |
5 |
10/2016 |
723846 |
623823 |
571128 |
478453 |
383238 |
9630 |
5974 |
7572 |
3658 |
6431 |
6 |
11/2016 |
722437 |
723846 |
623823 |
571128 |
478453 |
11740 |
9630 |
5974 |
7572 |
3658 |
7 |
12/2016 |
1316385 |
722437 |
723846 |
623823 |
571128 |
10722 |
11740 |
9 630 |
5974 |
7572 |
8 |
01/2017 |
693548 |
1316385 |
722437 |
723846 |
623823 |
5976 |
10722 |
11740 |
9630 |
5974 |
9 |
02/2017 |
704495 |
693548 |
1316385 |
722437 |
723846 |
8406 |
5976 |
10722 |
11740 |
9630 |
10 |
03/2017 |
679509 |
704495 |
693548 |
1316385 |
722437 |
9493 |
8406 |
5976 |
10722 |
11740 |
11 |
04/2017 |
573296 |
679509 |
704495 |
693548 |
1316385 |
8475 |
9493 |
8406 |
5976 |
10722 |
12 |
05/2017 |
561328 |
573296 |
679509 |
704495 |
693548 |
5 831 |
8475 |
9493 |
8406 |
5976 |
13 |
06/2017 |
730696 |
561328 |
573296 |
679509 |
704495 |
7426 |
5310 |
8475 |
9493 |
8406 |
Change |
Y |
X1 |
X2 |
X3 |
X4 |
X5 |
X6 |
X7 |
X8 |
X9 |
Dispersion analysis is a statistical method for analyzing results that depend on qualitative characteristics. Each factor can be a discrete or continuous random variable, which is divided into several constant levels (gradations, intervals). If the number of measurements (samples, data) at all levels of each of the factors is the same, then the dispersion analysis is called uniform, otherwise - uneven.
Table 2
Dispersion analysis
|
df |
SS |
MS |
F |
Value of F |
Regression |
9 |
5.5881E+11 |
6.209E+10 |
8.48348663 |
0.052670674 |
Remainder |
3 |
2.1957E+10 |
7318881106
|
||
Total |
12 |
5.8076E+11 |
Source: author's calculations
Table 3
Building a model for forecasting the sale of insurance services and calculating costs for ensuring economic security
Indicators |
Coefficients |
Standard error |
t-statistics |
P- value |
Low 95% |
Upper 95% |
Y- intersection |
-317308 |
164514 |
-1.929 |
0.149 |
-840864.62 |
206247.94 |
Change X1 |
-0.409 |
0.1935 |
-2.113 |
0.125 |
-1.025 |
0.207 |
Change X2 |
-0.292 |
0.2303 |
-1.266 |
0.295 |
-1.024 |
0.441 |
Change X3 |
-0.830 |
0.2884 |
-2.877 |
0.064 |
-1.747 |
0.088 |
Change X4 |
-0.885 |
0.1800 |
-4.916 |
0.016 |
-1.458 |
-0.312 |
Change X5 |
40.268 |
16.6796 |
2.414 |
0.095 |
-12.814 |
93.350 |
Change X6 |
106.977 |
17.8772 |
5.984 |
0.009 |
50.084 |
163.870 |
Change X7 |
42.663 |
17.0766 |
2.498 |
0.088 |
-11.683 |
97.008 |
Change X8 |
41.901 |
24.6260 |
1.701 |
0.187 |
-36.470 |
120.272 |
Change X9 |
105.861 |
26.8506 |
3.943 |
0.029 |
20.410 |
191.311 |
Table 4
Retrospective check of regression model and calculation of average error of approximation
List No. |
Period |
Sales of services, UAH |
Forecast of sales of services, UAH |
Error % |
1 |
June 2016 |
383 238 |
390 747 |
2.0% |
2 |
July 2016 |
478 453 |
542 858 |
13.5% |
3 |
August 2016 |
571 128 |
590 353 |
3.4% |
4 |
September 2016 |
623 823 |
524 019 |
16.0% |
5 |
October 2016 |
723 846 |
709 049 |
2.0% |
6 |
November 2016 |
722 437 |
769 935 |
6.6% |
7 |
December 2016 |
1 316 385 |
1 303 801 |
1.0% |
8 |
January 2017 |
693 548 |
705 669 |
1.7% |
9 |
February 2017 |
704 495 |
722 003 |
2.5% |
10 |
March 2017 |
679 509 |
689 644 |
1.5% |
11 |
April 2017 |
573 296 |
559 972 |
2.3% |
12 |
May 2017 |
561 328 |
583 229 |
3.9% |
13 |
June 2017 |
730 696 |
670 903 |
8.2% |
Average approximation error |
5.0% |
The method of correlation-regression analysis is based on the forecast model of the amount of service provided by the insurance company:
(1)
where: Y – forecast amount of insurance company's services, UAH; Х1 ... Х4 – volume of sales of services in months, UAH; Х5…..Х9 – costs of providing economic security, UAH
For IC "Knyazha" we will determine the dependence of operating expenses on ensuring economic security Y (UAH) from the amount of costs for ensuring the competitiveness of services (a group of technology and organization factors) in the sum of cost of services X1 (UAH), the sum of costs for ensuring the competitiveness of services (a group of financial factors ) in the amount of administrative expenses X2 (UAH), the amount of costs for ensuring the competitiveness of services (a group of market factors of technology) in the amount of unproductive expenses X3 (UAH) and the amount of costs for ensuring a competitive services (group of factors of competition) in the amount of other operating expenses X4 (UAH).
For the convenience of conducting calculations, place the results of the interim calculations in Table 5.
Table 5
Output data to calculate the dependence of operating costs on providing economic security Y (UAH) from the amount of costs to ensure the competitiveness of services
List No. |
year |
Y |
X1 |
X2 |
X3 |
X4 |
1 |
2013 |
399399.33 |
328429.36 |
18990.56 |
37128.15 |
14851.26 |
2 |
2014 |
399709.26 |
324776.41 |
23666.6 |
36618.75 |
14647.5 |
3 |
2015 |
380288.31 |
311572.73 |
27106.32 |
29720.9 |
11888.36 |
4 |
2016 |
61574.59 |
290483.06 |
29925.16 |
29404.55 |
11761.82 |
5 |
2017 |
321514.53 |
253449 |
31112.6 |
26394.95 |
10557.98 |
6 |
2018 |
94226.03 |
76288.52 |
8486.04 |
6751.05 |
2700.42 |
Consequently, another independent method of evaluation confirmed the fairly high cost effectiveness of service quality. In some cases, the coefficient of elasticity for the cost of providing quality services reaches 100-fold value (that is, for every additional expenditure spent on ensuring the competitiveness of the services of the hryvnia, we have over UAH 100 additional volumes of sales of services). It is significant that sales of previous periods, in this model, have a negative impact on the sale of services: the more we sell, the more then we have to spend on quality of services, so as not to lose the conquered positions.
Insights from this study and perspectives for further research in this direction. The study found that the proposed methodological approaches to the management of economic security companies insurance sector, unlike the existing ones, should be determined on the basis of their areas by constructing a matrix of economic security and predictive model of volume of insurance services [5-7]. This makes it possible to take into account the actual conditions of functioning of insurance enterprises, to increase the scientific validity of strategic decisions in a competitive environment, in particpular, to develop competitive position and strategic direction of the company. Realization developed scientific statements, conclusions and recommendations in the process of implementation in insurance enterprises of Ukraine confirmed their reliability and usefulness of enterprises services in decision-making.
References