Оцінка ризиків в управлінні портфелем проектів в умовах високої невизначеності в інтелектуальному бізнесі

English

Assessment of risks in project portfolio management in conditions of high uncertainty in intellectual business

Abstract. Introduction. Risk assessment in the management of a portfolio of projects in intellectual business is of crucial importance for ensuring the strategic stability and competitiveness of the organization. Intellectual business, which is based on innovation, knowledge and high technology, is exposed to significant risks due to the dynamic nature of markets, high level of uncertainty and rapid changes in the technological environment. In this context, risk assessment plays a key role in the effective management of the project portfolio, allowing to identify, analyze and control possible threats. Goal. Systematization of key risks in project portfolio management in conditions of high uncertainty in intellectual business and features of risk assessment in project portfolio management in conditions of high uncertainty in intellectual business. Materials and methods. Analysis of scientific literature devoted to risk management and project management, in particular in conditions of uncertainty and in the intellectual sectors of business; methods of the system approach, which allowed systematizing the risk management process and identifying key factors that influence decision-making; a comparative analysis to compare different approaches to project portfolio management under conditions of high uncertainty. The results. First of all, risk assessment allows the organization to identify critical factors that can negatively affect the success of projects, such as changes in legislation, market fluctuations, technological or human errors. This information is the foundation for developing risk minimization strategies, which allows you to reduce potential losses and increase the probability of achieving your goals. In addition, in the context of intellectual business, where innovation is the main source of competitive advantage, risk management is necessary to maintain a balance between innovation and sustainability. Risk assessment helps make more informed decisions about investments in new projects, identifying those with the highest potential for success with the least possible losses. It also allows management to adjust the project portfolio in a timely manner, adapting it to changing market conditions. After all, effective risk assessment in project portfolio management also helps to increase the level of trust among stakeholders such as investors, partners and customers. A clear understanding and control over risks ensure more transparent management processes and increase the company's reputation. Thus, risk assessment is an integral part of successful project portfolio management in intellectual business, ensuring its sustainability, adaptability and competitiveness in the constantly changing market environment. Prospects. Prospects for further research may include the development of a methodology for more accurate identification and quantification of risks in dynamically changing conditions, improvement of risk forecasting models taking into account the specifics of intellectual business, as well as research into the impact of digital technologies on the project portfolio management process.

Keywords: project management; management; unstable environment; intellectual business